Three Republicans who could challenge Steve Bullock in 2016 (PLUS PONTENTIAL RUNNING MATES)

Steve Bullock has consistently held approval ratings under fifty percent, has made no groundbreaking changes, and has faced multiple controversies  during his short tenure as Governor. With the previous points in mind, it is very likely that Bullock will be a top Republican target, and potential pickup in 2016. If a strong candidate were to run, I feel that Bullock could face defeat. I have composed a list of people who I believe will, at the very least, mull a run.

POTENTIAL CANDIDATES

 

Corey Stapleton, former State Senate Minority Leader

1. Corey Stapleton was cheated, plain and simple. Ryan Zinke used big money, and false information to steal a race that Stapleton had, as well as rode on the unfortunate vote split created by Matt Rosendale, and Elsie Arntzen's candidacies.

However, I (like other pundits in Montana) do not think we have seen the last of Stapleton's political career, and it is in my opinion, that Stapleton should be among one of the more talked about potential gubernatorial candidates.

 In 2012, Stapleton finished second in the crowded Republican primary in the Governor's race. Which is significant, considering not only the amount of candidates in the race, but the heavy name recognition of the other Republicans as well (former Congressman Rick Hill, then-Montana Senate Majority Leader Jeff Essmann,  former Montana Department of Transportation director Jim Lynch, etc.)  His candidacy in the race, also shows he has interest in being Governor.

Furthermore, in this year's U.S House primary, Stapleton (in spite of Zinke's best efforts), placed a close second to Zinke in the final vote tally,  claiming 29.3% compared to Zinke's 33.2%.

Verdict:  Stapleton is a very potential candidate, who would not only likely become the front runner of the GOP field (unless another heavyweight should run, in which case they would share front runner status), but could also run a exceptionally competitive race against Bullock. However, I could see Stapleton instead deciding to run for U.S House this year as a write-in candidate (there is a group attempting to convince him to enter the race), or challenging Jon Tester in 2018.

 Likelihood of running: 75% chance.

 

Tim Fox, Montana Attorney General

 2. Tim Fox has been a very active Attorney General, making himself acutely active in Montana's driver education system, Second Amendment issues, and has strongly fought the internet tax. If Fox were to run for Governor, he could very well put the Montana  Democrats in panic mode.

Nevertheless, I'm hesitant to put certainty behind a Fox campaign. If Fox ran, he would be the first Montana Attorney General in recent history to challenge an incumbent Governor before being term limited, a somewhat risky move, as Fox will be up for re-election in 2016, and to my knowledge, is prohibited from seeking two offices at once by state law. Although Fox could run an aggressive campaign, Bullock's approval would have to be severely low for Fox to risk his position.

Verdict: Fox may run, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't, and waited until 2020, or 2024 (depending on the way the election goes).

Likelihood of running: 55% chance.

Denny Rehberg, former U.S Representative

3. Denny Rehberg could conceivably pose a threat to Bullock. Rehberg is very well known across the state, and picked up the support of many big named Republicans and organizantions in 2012 (including Rand and Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and the U.S Chamber of Commerce). Rehberg has had experience working in the State Government, as he was appointed Lieutenant Governor by Stan Stephens in 1991, following Allen Kolstad's appointment to the International Boundary Commission by George H. W. Bush. Rehberg has been re-elected in very tough years for Montana Republicans (i.e 2006, 2008), despite being a Democratic target.

The only problem I see with Rehberg, is that during his 2012 Senate campaign he underwent a large amount of scrutiny by Jon Tester, and many statements made by him were taken out of context, and turned against him. Steve Bullock would no doubt look to Tester's attacks on Rehberg for ideas. But I could see Rehberg overcoming this, as long as he stayed on the attack against Bullock.

Verdict: Rehberg could run, but as with Fox, he might wait until it is an open seat.


Likelihood of running: 50% chance.

BONUS: POTENTIAL RUNNING MATES

Steve Fitzpatrick, State Representative

1. Steve Fitzpatrick at the age of thirty-six, has quickly started to become a well known public figure in Montana. Whenever I drive in Great Falls, I usually see at least one of his campaign signs in a yard, at a business, or next to the road. Fitzpatrick has both a law degree, and a bachelors degree in biology, and currently works at a law firm.

Verdict: Fitzpatrick could be a very ideal running mate for someone such as Corey Stapleton, as he would bring a balance of youth to the experienced ticket.

Chance of being chosen:  Above fifty percent.

Sarah Laszloffy, State Representative

2. Sarah Laszloffy is a rising star in the Montana GOP. In 2012, Laszloffy won election to the State House with an astonishing 70.5% vote percentage. Being in the prime of her political career, and possessing incredible campaigning prowess, Laszloffy should certainly be watched by the political world.

Verdict: Laszloffy will almost certainly be considered by any candidate thinking of a gubernatorial run.

Chance of being chosen: Above fifty percent.

Jon Sonju

3. Jon Sonju almost made the potential gubernatorial candidates list. I eventually decided to leave him off, as he seems more keen on being to a federal office, however, I highly doubt he (or anyone) would turn down the offer to be the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor. As most political watchers know, Sonju has run for Lieutenant Governor before, with 2012 nominee, and former Congressman, Rick Hill. Sonju could bring the experience of having previously sought the Lieutenant Governorship to the ticket, and would be one of the more well known options.

Sonju is also well known in Montana, as he is the Business Developer for his family-run business, Sonju Industrial, a company that has existed since 1978.

Verdict: Sonju unfortunately shares the same problem as Wisconsin Congressman, and 2012 Vice Presidential nominee, Paul Ryan, both have been part of an unsuccessful ticket, and while Ryan is touted as a viable potential presidential candidate, it is doubtful he would be chosen as a vice presidential candidate again. However, I do believe Sonju has a better chance than Ryan of being chosen again, and I can't shake the feeling he could be a possible Rehberg running mate. Another thing to note is, Sonju could feasibly run in 2018 for Senate, in what will likely be a competitive Republican field.

Chance of being chosen: Below fifty percent.




In conclusion: While the 2016 gubernatorial race is two years away, I can predict without a doubt, that it will be a highly immersing race, and will gain national attention. Montana Wacko Birds will continue to report on not only this election, but other races across the state.


That's how I see it


~Montana Wacko Birds