Three Republicans who could challenge Steve Bullock in 2016 (PLUS PONTENTIAL RUNNING MATES)

Steve Bullock has consistently held approval ratings under fifty percent, has made no groundbreaking changes, and has faced multiple controversies  during his short tenure as Governor. With the previous points in mind, it is very likely that Bullock will be a top Republican target, and potential pickup in 2016. If a strong candidate were to run, I feel that Bullock could face defeat. I have composed a list of people who I believe will, at the very least, mull a run.

POTENTIAL CANDIDATES

 

Corey Stapleton, former State Senate Minority Leader

1. Corey Stapleton was cheated, plain and simple. Ryan Zinke used big money, and false information to steal a race that Stapleton had, as well as rode on the unfortunate vote split created by Matt Rosendale, and Elsie Arntzen's candidacies.

However, I (like other pundits in Montana) do not think we have seen the last of Stapleton's political career, and it is in my opinion, that Stapleton should be among one of the more talked about potential gubernatorial candidates.

 In 2012, Stapleton finished second in the crowded Republican primary in the Governor's race. Which is significant, considering not only the amount of candidates in the race, but the heavy name recognition of the other Republicans as well (former Congressman Rick Hill, then-Montana Senate Majority Leader Jeff Essmann,  former Montana Department of Transportation director Jim Lynch, etc.)  His candidacy in the race, also shows he has interest in being Governor.

Furthermore, in this year's U.S House primary, Stapleton (in spite of Zinke's best efforts), placed a close second to Zinke in the final vote tally,  claiming 29.3% compared to Zinke's 33.2%.

Verdict:  Stapleton is a very potential candidate, who would not only likely become the front runner of the GOP field (unless another heavyweight should run, in which case they would share front runner status), but could also run a exceptionally competitive race against Bullock. However, I could see Stapleton instead deciding to run for U.S House this year as a write-in candidate (there is a group attempting to convince him to enter the race), or challenging Jon Tester in 2018.

 Likelihood of running: 75% chance.

 

Tim Fox, Montana Attorney General

 2. Tim Fox has been a very active Attorney General, making himself acutely active in Montana's driver education system, Second Amendment issues, and has strongly fought the internet tax. If Fox were to run for Governor, he could very well put the Montana  Democrats in panic mode.

Nevertheless, I'm hesitant to put certainty behind a Fox campaign. If Fox ran, he would be the first Montana Attorney General in recent history to challenge an incumbent Governor before being term limited, a somewhat risky move, as Fox will be up for re-election in 2016, and to my knowledge, is prohibited from seeking two offices at once by state law. Although Fox could run an aggressive campaign, Bullock's approval would have to be severely low for Fox to risk his position.

Verdict: Fox may run, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't, and waited until 2020, or 2024 (depending on the way the election goes).

Likelihood of running: 55% chance.

Denny Rehberg, former U.S Representative

3. Denny Rehberg could conceivably pose a threat to Bullock. Rehberg is very well known across the state, and picked up the support of many big named Republicans and organizantions in 2012 (including Rand and Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and the U.S Chamber of Commerce). Rehberg has had experience working in the State Government, as he was appointed Lieutenant Governor by Stan Stephens in 1991, following Allen Kolstad's appointment to the International Boundary Commission by George H. W. Bush. Rehberg has been re-elected in very tough years for Montana Republicans (i.e 2006, 2008), despite being a Democratic target.

The only problem I see with Rehberg, is that during his 2012 Senate campaign he underwent a large amount of scrutiny by Jon Tester, and many statements made by him were taken out of context, and turned against him. Steve Bullock would no doubt look to Tester's attacks on Rehberg for ideas. But I could see Rehberg overcoming this, as long as he stayed on the attack against Bullock.

Verdict: Rehberg could run, but as with Fox, he might wait until it is an open seat.


Likelihood of running: 50% chance.

BONUS: POTENTIAL RUNNING MATES

Steve Fitzpatrick, State Representative

1. Steve Fitzpatrick at the age of thirty-six, has quickly started to become a well known public figure in Montana. Whenever I drive in Great Falls, I usually see at least one of his campaign signs in a yard, at a business, or next to the road. Fitzpatrick has both a law degree, and a bachelors degree in biology, and currently works at a law firm.

Verdict: Fitzpatrick could be a very ideal running mate for someone such as Corey Stapleton, as he would bring a balance of youth to the experienced ticket.

Chance of being chosen:  Above fifty percent.

Sarah Laszloffy, State Representative

2. Sarah Laszloffy is a rising star in the Montana GOP. In 2012, Laszloffy won election to the State House with an astonishing 70.5% vote percentage. Being in the prime of her political career, and possessing incredible campaigning prowess, Laszloffy should certainly be watched by the political world.

Verdict: Laszloffy will almost certainly be considered by any candidate thinking of a gubernatorial run.

Chance of being chosen: Above fifty percent.

Jon Sonju

3. Jon Sonju almost made the potential gubernatorial candidates list. I eventually decided to leave him off, as he seems more keen on being to a federal office, however, I highly doubt he (or anyone) would turn down the offer to be the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor. As most political watchers know, Sonju has run for Lieutenant Governor before, with 2012 nominee, and former Congressman, Rick Hill. Sonju could bring the experience of having previously sought the Lieutenant Governorship to the ticket, and would be one of the more well known options.

Sonju is also well known in Montana, as he is the Business Developer for his family-run business, Sonju Industrial, a company that has existed since 1978.

Verdict: Sonju unfortunately shares the same problem as Wisconsin Congressman, and 2012 Vice Presidential nominee, Paul Ryan, both have been part of an unsuccessful ticket, and while Ryan is touted as a viable potential presidential candidate, it is doubtful he would be chosen as a vice presidential candidate again. However, I do believe Sonju has a better chance than Ryan of being chosen again, and I can't shake the feeling he could be a possible Rehberg running mate. Another thing to note is, Sonju could feasibly run in 2018 for Senate, in what will likely be a competitive Republican field.

Chance of being chosen: Below fifty percent.




In conclusion: While the 2016 gubernatorial race is two years away, I can predict without a doubt, that it will be a highly immersing race, and will gain national attention. Montana Wacko Birds will continue to report on not only this election, but other races across the state.


That's how I see it


~Montana Wacko Birds

My Official Endorsement of Corey Stapleton

I know, I know last minute, but I feel I need to do this. Corey is the exact kind of Rand Paul, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels conservatism we need to send to Washington D.C. He will fight for conservative values, but will be willing to get thing done for the betterment of our nation. He has served our country, and he will again in Congress. Corey Stapleton is Republican enough, but also not a right wing nut job *cough Turiano cough*. Corey Stapleton, is who we need in the House.


That's how I see it


~Montana Wacko Birds

White Wolf dropping out of House race

 

 

On January 5th, Shawn White Wolf an independent candidate for U.S House posted on perennial candidate Melinda Gopher's wall asking her if she was still in the U.S House race (screenshot above). White Wolf went on to write that he had ended his own campaign in result of a recent death in his immediate family.

My prayers go out to White Wolf and his family.

 

 

~Montana Wacko Birds

 

Before you embark on a journey of revenge, close two lanes

Well, this story has been reported by almost every news outlet known to man, but I decided to take a crack at it, because I feel like the truth needs to be told! As I said in my introduction, this is a conservative blog, but I believe that ALL political corruption needs to come to light.

 As the story goes, New Jersey Governor Chris "Krispie Kreme" Christie, has gotten his tail caught in a crack, with a recent scandal involving the closure of two lanes leading to the George Washington Bridge. This resulted in a tremendous traffic jam which lasted days.

But here is the juicy part, the man who spearheaded the closing, David Wildstein the director of interstate capital projects for the New York and New Jersey Port Authority, is DEEP in the Christie entourage, was appointed by Christie, and is childhood friends with the Governor.

But the meat of the story definitely does not end there. As it turns out, the Mayor of Fort Lee, where the incident took place, flat out refused to endorse Christie in his highly publicized reelection campaign last year.

But it does not even end there! It has now come out that Bridget Anne Kelly, the deputy chief of staff of the Governor's office, emailed Wildstine right before the stoppage saying "Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.". Which Wildstine responded with, "Got it".

If none if this was bad enough, it is now coming out that in a series of text messages between Wildstine and another unknown person, Fort Lee children were mocked by Wildstine. The unidentified person writing, "Is it wrong I'm smiling?" To which Wildstine replied "No". The mystery person went on to write "I feel bad for the kids" quickly adding "I guess",  to which Wildstine coldly responded, “They are the children of Buono voters."

Of course, Christie has scrambled to claim absolutely no involvement. He has now gone on to fire Kelly, and apologize profusely. Even channeling Richard Nixon and saying, 'I am not a bully'.

But I have my own questions. Did Christie really not have any involvement? Why would his entourage care that a democratic mayor refused to endorse a republican Governor? Why would his endorsement matter anyway, Christie was leading in the polls as early as October 2012. Only losing one poll to Cory Booker who very early on declined to run, and tying Frank Pallone. Make of this story as you will, for I am sure more developments will come out as time goes on.

That's how I see it


~Montana Wacko Birds

I'm FINALLY back!

Well, the title pretty much says it! As embarrassing as it is, I forgot the password to my blogger account, but miraculously remembered it! It is now a new year which means MORE liberal bashing! *Insert noisemaker sound* Stay tuned!



~Montana Wacko Birds